«Young people» at the head of the municipality: the political survival of young mayors under a competitive election model (the case of Perm Krai)

Abstract

This article examines young mayors and their political survival. It attempts to answer the question: how is the age of a local mayor related to political survival under the competitive model of election? The problem is approached from the perspective of a theory of rational choice institutionalism. According to this theory, the competitive model acts as a political institution. It is suggested that this model creates opportunities for the governor to promote younger candidates as less independent and therefore more manageable and controllable. It is hypothesised that young mayors are more likely to retain their position than experienced, established mayors in a given municipality. The study is based on data from 91 competitions for the election of local mayors in Perm Krai from 2015 to 2021, which were analyzed using logistic regression. In addition to the age factor, the governor's personality factor is taken into account, which changed twice in the region during the period under consideration. As a result, the main hypothesis was confirmed: the group of young mayors was more capable of keeping their office than the group of more experienced, older mayors. However, the governor's factor did not prove to be significant. It appears that the change of the governor could have influenced the strategy of regional authorities' behavior in individual contests, but this is difficult to capture by the quantitative method. The author concludes that the introduction of the competitive election model contributed to the "rejuvenation" of the corps of local mayors. The support of younger mayors by the governor can be explained by their greater manageability compared to the municipality's entrenched older mayors.